MLB Odds: Cubs Can Close out Nats at Wrigley. The Chicago Cubs are one win away from returning to the National League Championship Series. The Cubs (–103 at home at Bovada) beat the Washington Nationals 2-1 on Monday to take a 2-1 lead in their best-of-five NLDS; Game 4 is Tuesday at Wrigley Field, beginning at 5:38 PM ET on TBS.

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Former Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta (4.16 FIP) is expected to pitch for Chicago. This has been Arrieta’s worst season since joining the Cubs in 2013, and his supporters finished the regular season down 4.71 betting units on a team record of 16-14, including just one quality start in his last five games.

The Nationals respond with Tanner Roark (4.13 FIP), who’s pitched roughly as well as Arrieta this year, but at a relative bargain price for bettors. Roark has the same 16-14 team record, but with less chalk to carry, his red ink has been limited to 1.66 units. Comparing the two pitchers by ERA might lead casual fans astray; Roark’s 4.67 ERA is much higher than Arrieta’s 3.53, but Roark has also allowed an unfortunate .300 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), while Arrieta’s .279 BABIP is closer to normal for that stat.

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