It’s always interesting when the Florida Gators and the Florida State Seminoles match up for Rivalry Week, but it’s even better when the stakes are high. The No. 13 Gators (8-2 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) can still make the College Football Playoff, while the No. 15 Seminoles (8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) are in the running for a high-end bowl game, like the Sun Bowl on December 30 in El Paso.
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The football odds are in Florida State’s favor. The Seminoles are 7.5-point home favorites at press time for Saturday’s game (8 PM ET, ABC), up from –6.5 at the open, and they’ve owned this rivalry since Jimbo Fisher took over as FSU’s head coach in 2010, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. The Gators have also failed to cover each of their last six non-conference games.
While the Florida Gators are ahead in the FBS standings and the CFP rankings, the analytic point to the Seminoles as the stronger team. The difference is especially pronounced on offense; FSU rank 19th overall at 6.54 yards per play, while the Gators are No. 84 at 5.47 yards. The under is 7-3 for Florida this year and 13-3 in their last 16 games against Florida State.